Guide · Price cap watch
January 2027 price cap forecast: what it means for charging an EV
The next price cap looks set to jump in January. If you charge an EV on a standard variable tariff, that rise lands on every mile you drive. On a smart EV tariff, most of it doesn't.
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The short version: forecasters expect the cap to rise by roughly 16% to 28% from 1 January 2027. For a typical 8,000-mile driver charging at home on the cap, that could add about £90 to £160 a year. On an overnight EV tariff the same miles cost about £149, and that rate isn't set by the cap.
Plug your own mileage into the EV cost tool →
What the forecasters are saying
Ofgem will confirm the January to March 2027 cap on or before 25 November 2026. Until then, these are forecasts, and they've moved up sharply over October.
- The three big supplier forecasts, from British Gas, E.ON Next and EnergyCode, cluster around +27% to +28%.
- Cornwall Insight's last public forecast, from late September, was lower at +16%. It's the only one that publishes an electricity unit rate: 30.28p per kWh.
- Today's cap for a typical home is £1,723 a year.
See the numbers
| Forecaster (date) | Typical annual bill | Change vs £1,723 |
|---|---|---|
| EnergyCode (30 Oct) | £2,202 | +27.8% |
| British Gas (30 Oct, low confidence) | £2,185 | +26.8% |
| E.ON Next (26 Oct) | £2,183 | +26.7% |
| Cornwall Insight (30 Sep) | £1,999 | +16.0% |
Percentages are our arithmetic against the current £1,723 typical bill. Ofgem's typical bill uses its standard consumption values; your bill depends on your own use.
Whole-bill forecasts don't tell you how much electricity on its own will move, so we've shown a range below rather than a single number.
What it could mean for charging at home
Take a driver doing 8,000 miles a year at about 3.5 miles per kWh. That's roughly 2,286 kWh of charging.
- On today's cap (26.32p): about £602 a year, or 7.5p a mile.
- On Cornwall Insight's forecast (30.28p): about £692 a year, or 8.7p a mile. That's about £90 more.
- If electricity rose by the full ~27%: about £764 a year, or 9.6p a mile. That's about £162 more. This is an illustration, not a forecast.
- On Intelligent Octopus Go (6.5p): about £149 a year, or 1.9p a mile.
See the numbers
| Rate | p/kWh as charged (0% VAT) | p/kWh if 5% VAT applied | Per year | Per mile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price cap now, GB average (1 Oct–31 Dec 2026) | 26.32p | 27.64p | £602 | 7.5p |
| Cornwall Insight Jan–Mar 2027 forecast | 30.28p | 31.79p | £692 | 8.7p |
| Illustration: cap +27% | 33.43p | 35.10p | £764 | 9.6p |
| Intelligent Octopus Go smart-charging rate | 6.5p | 6.83p | £149 | 1.9p |
| Public rapid, pay as you go (IONITY Direct, 20% VAT) | 83p (69.17p before VAT) | n/a | £1,897 | 23.7p |
Sources: Ofgem (26.32p, checked 2 Nov 2026); Cornwall Insight (30.28p, published 30 Sep 2026, checked 2 Nov 2026); Octopus Energy (6.5p, checked 2 Nov 2026); IONITY Direct from our charger price table. Home electricity in Great Britain has 0% VAT until 30 June 2027, so the "as charged" column is what you pay; the 5% column is for comparison only. The +27% row is our illustration, not anyone's forecast.
Why a smart EV tariff matters more now
The cap only limits standard variable tariffs. EV tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go are priced by the supplier, so a cap rise doesn't automatically change their overnight rate. Suppliers can still change rates with notice, so check before you switch.
The catch is the daytime rate, which is usually around the cap or above it. If you charge a lot and can plug in overnight, the maths usually works. If you drive very little, it might not. Our EV tariff vs price cap break-even guide shows where the line is.
What you can do before January
- Check your tariff. If you're on the standard variable rate and charge at home, compare EV tariffs in our off-peak EV tariff guide.
- Look at fixes, carefully. Some fixed deals are priced below the forecast January cap. A fix only wins if the cap goes up as expected. See fixed vs variable.
- Keep daily miles off rapids. Public charging now carries 20% VAT, and pay-as-you-go rapids are already about three times the capped home rate.
- Run your own numbers in the tariff calculator.
Prices with and without VAT
Home electricity in Great Britain: 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 (normally 5%; Northern Ireland stays at 5%), so cap and EV tariff rates are the same with or without VAT. Public and workplace charging: 20% VAT from 1 November 2026 (HMRC VAT Notice 701/19, checked 2 Nov 2026).
Not in Great Britain? The cap doesn't apply in Northern Ireland, Guernsey or Jersey. See Guernsey and Jersey tariffs compared.
Frequently asked questions
Will the price cap go up in January 2027?
Ofgem confirms on or before 25 November 2026. As of 2 November 2026, published forecasts range from about +16% (Cornwall Insight, 30 September) to about +28% (EnergyCode, 30 October) for a typical dual-fuel home, with British Gas and E.ON Next both near +27%.
How much more could it cost to charge an EV at home?
For 8,000 miles a year at 3.5 miles per kWh (about 2,286 kWh), charging at today's average capped rate of 26.32p costs about £602 a year. At Cornwall Insight's forecast 30.28p it would be about £692, and if electricity rose by the full 27% headline it would be about £764. These are our illustrations, not Ofgem figures.
Does the price cap cover EV tariffs like Intelligent Octopus Go?
No. Time-of-use EV tariffs are set by the supplier, not by the cap. Intelligent Octopus Go's smart-charging rate was 6.5p per kWh when we checked on 2 November 2026, but suppliers can change rates with notice.
Is there VAT on home electricity in January 2027?
In Great Britain, domestic electricity has 0% VAT from 1 October 2026 to 30 June 2027 (HMRC VAT Notice 701/19). Northern Ireland stays at 5%. Public and workplace charging is 20% VAT from 1 November 2026.
Related guides
- The energy price cap explained
- EV tariff vs the price cap: break-even
- Intelligent Octopus Go vs other EV tariffs
- How much does it cost to charge an EV at home?
- Public charging reality check
Sources (checked 2 November 2026 unless stated)
- Ofgem: energy price cap: current cap, what it covers.
- British Gas: price cap forecast (updated 30 Oct 2026).
- E.ON Next: price cap predictions (26 Oct 2026).
- EnergyCode: Ofgem price cap prediction (updated 30 Oct 2026).
- Cornwall Insight: default tariff cap predictions (30 Sep 2026).
- Octopus Energy: Intelligent Octopus Go.
- HMRC VAT Notice 701/19.